Recently I attended the Web 2.0 Expo out in San Francisco. One of the highlights of the conferences was a Q&A with Jeff Bezos.
I’ve met Jeff a few times, he is one of the entrepreneurs I most admire so I’m always keeping an eye on Amazon to see what they’re up to, and I wasn’t expecting to learn a whole lot new from the Q&A… But, just like re-reading a good book and catching something you missed the first time, there was a real gem.
Jeff was talking about their web services strategy (S3, EC2, etc) and said something to this effect (paraphrasing from memory):
Many people are always trying to figure out what’s new–what is going to be the latest trend. We like to focus on what is not changing–what is going to stay around and be needed regardless of what the latest trend is.
AJAX, social networks, video… even if all of those trends pass and are replaced by new online trends, data storage and computing power are still going to be needed. This is just like the entrepreneurs who sold mining supplies during the San Francisco gold rush, and the shipping companies (UPS, FedEx) who delivered all your purchases regardless of which e-commerce company you buy from; it’s great to be at the foundation.
If you’re interested more in Jeff Bezos, there is a great interview with him at the Academy of Achievement.
It would be interesting to see his position on the same subject if he were just starting out. Would the barriers to entry in regards to building a business that deals in the “foundations” cause him to take a different stance if he was without all that cash? Seems like once your company is established it is ok to work at the foundation but it is much easier to begin a company by working at the trends.
AJAX for AJAX’s sake, he’s right. But AJAX isn’t popular for no reason - it is popular for the new web experiences it enables. Technologists will need to stay on top of the trends to keep their services relevant - hotmail vs. gmail is a great example of this. maps.google vs. mapquest.
By the way - seen the new MS mapping application maps.live? It might even beat maps.google!
What I take away from this is not that people are overvaluing the importance of new technologies, but that people are undervaluing the importance of things that don’t change. Don’t disregard AJAX and all the other new trends, but just don’t forget to ask yourself the question: in my industry/space, what is going to remain important regardless of the latest trend.